Paris: The defeat marks Macron’s fifth leadership shake-up in less than two years.
Prime Minister François Bayrou, a centrist ally of Macron, suffered a 364–194 defeat in the National Assembly on Monday and will tender his resignation on Tuesday. His unpopular proposals for budget tightening, amid France’s swelling deficit and debt levels, triggered rare unity among opposition parties that led to his downfall.
The challenge now for Macron is formidable. France’s deficit is nearly double the EU’s 3% ceiling, with debt standing at 114% of GDP. Any successor will face the daunting task of uniting a deeply fragmented parliament while drafting a 2025 budget acceptable to both lawmakers and markets.
Among potential replacements is Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, though Macron could also opt for a centrist technocrat or a figure from the left to broaden political support. Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure has already demanded the left and greens take charge, while far-right National Rally chief Marine Le Pen has renewed calls for fresh parliamentary elections, an option Macron has so far rejected after last year’s snap election backfired, producing a more fractured parliament.
Markets showed muted reaction on Tuesday, with Bayrou’s exit largely anticipated. But investor focus is now on Fitch’s upcoming rating review of France later this week, which could add further pressure.
Meanwhile, political instability is spilling into the streets. French unions and grassroots activists are preparing nationwide “Let’s Block Everything” protests on Wednesday, with up to 80,000 police set to deploy amid fears of violence and blockades. The movement, echoing the 2018–19 “Yellow Vest” protests, is fueled by anger over economic strains and Macron’s leadership.