KOCHI: Kerala must strengthen its climate resilience as changing rainfall patterns, rising temperatures and threats from the sea make the state increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, scientists and environmental experts have warned.

Rainfall during Kerala’s monsoon is becoming more erratic and intense, with large volumes of rain falling over shorter periods even as the overall number of rainy days declines, atmospheric scientist Dr S Abhilash said.

Abhilash, Director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), said Kerala’s distinctive geography, which has historically shaped its climate, was increasingly becoming a source of vulnerability.

“The most important changes for Kerala are the change in rainfall, the change in temperature and, at the same time, changes in the sea. These three factors come together,” he said at the Manorama News Conclave 2026 session titled Kerala on the Edge.

He said rainfall that would traditionally have been spread over two months could now arrive within a few days, while the amount of rain normally received over an entire day could fall within just a few hours.

At the same time, Kerala is seeing fewer rainy days and longer intervals between rainfall events, creating a challenge in managing both flooding and water scarcity.

The state must find ways to prevent intense rainfall from causing floods while also conserving water for the prolonged dry spells that can follow, Abhilash said.

Research into extreme rainfall has also detected changes in the structure of monsoon clouds over the southeastern Arabian Sea near Kerala, he said. Clouds that previously generally reached heights of around six kilometres during the monsoon are now reaching eight to 10 kilometres.

The changing monsoon is only one part of Kerala’s emerging climate challenge. Experts said the state is also facing increasing risks from heatwaves, coastal erosion and sea-level rise.

Abhilash and ecologist C K Vishnudas, Director of the Hume Centre for Ecology and Wildlife Biology in Wayanad, said Kerala needed to build climate resilience by bringing together scientific research, governance and local communities.

They called for the state to move beyond a system that largely responds to disasters after they occur and instead invest more heavily in climate research, forecasting and preparedness.

Experts said hyper-local early-warning systems would be particularly important as extreme weather becomes increasingly localised and intense. Better dissemination of warnings, designated shelters and stronger community-level preparedness would also be needed to reduce the risks to people and infrastructure.

The combination of intense bursts of rainfall and longer dry periods means Kerala will have to prepare simultaneously for excess water and scarcity, while adapting to rising temperatures and growing threats along its coastline, they said.

The experts said a more proactive climate strategy, supported by improved forecasting and local-level preparedness, would be critical as Kerala confronts weather patterns that are becoming increasingly difficult to predict.